Senate Election Preview

1. To win control of the Senate, Democrats will need to win most or all of West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, Florida, and then win the Republican-held seats in Arizona, Nevada, and maybe Tennessee or Texas.
2. 10 Senate races are competitive.
3. It will be difficult for Heidi Heitkamp to win reelection because the Republicans chose a strong candidate, Kevin Cramner. He is allied closely with Trump on key issues such as energy, and although Trump's support is declining in North Dakota, Trump has 50% approval and Heidi has 44% approval, making it difficult for her.
4. Polling tells us that this is the tightest race, with a 0.6 point separation between McCaskill and Hawley. McCaskill is not in the lead.
5. The interesting situation that Heller is in is that he would support the governor's opinion on repealing Medicaid, and the governor said that he did not support repealing it. However, he starting voting for repeal policies after Trump talked to him and apparently some outside GOP money. The state does not really like Trump (45% approval, 51% disapproval).
6. The two candidates in Tennessee are Marsha Blackburn (R) and Phil Bredesen (D). Tennessee has majority support for Trump (56% approval, 40% disapproval).
7. The advantage Rick Scott has over Bill Nelson is that Scott has a lot of money, and has outspent Nelson on a 4-1 scale.
8. The Florida governor race may impact the election because Andrew Gillum is the Democratic nominee for governor and is the first black candidate for governor in Florida, so it may give the Democrats a boost in the Senate election.
9. Senator Flake has taken the stance of constantly criticizing Trump, but he still votes for his agenda every time.
10. What has changed about the Senate race in Texas since the beginning of summer was that at the beginning of summer, Cruz was doing very well and leading by double digits, his lead has dwindled to single digits and he is not doing as well.
11. Joe Donnelly avoids associating himself with the Democrats because Indiana is a very Republican state and so he only proclaims himself Democrat when absolutely necessary, like with Obamacare.
12. It is strange that a Democrat represents West Virginia because the state is so heavily conservative (63% support Trump).